I don’t have a crystal ball, but my forecasts have been fairly accurate and quite profitable over the past few years. While 2008 has been a tough year, all signs point to 2009 being much worse. Here is what I see on the horizon for the upcoming year.
1) The stock market decline will accelerate in 2009, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipping below 6,000. Extreme volatility will engulf the markets with plenty of counter-trend rallies that will be fueled by speculators “calling the bottom,” only to find a new bottom the following month.
2) Unemployment will rise dramatically as “official” statistics reach towards 10% and true unemployment rises closer to 20%.
3) Real estate prices will continue to drop as rates reset and foreclosures increase across the country. Commercial real estate will finally follow residential, as price declines accelerate due to foreclosures on shopping malls, retail outlets, office buildings, etc.
4) Bailouts will continue, with more industries lining up for government rescue packages and both the financial and auto industries returning to the trough for more of their fix. This will lead to prediction #5.
5) Deflation will subdue and the first signs of hyperinflation will appear in the back half of 2009 as the trillions in bailout dollars begin to flow into the economy. The price declines that are a result of liquidation and de-leveraging, will give way to skyrocketing prices as politicians continue trying to print and borrow our way out of bad times. This will lead to prediction #6.
6) The dollar will resume its downtrend and make new lows during the first half of 2009. This will continue throughout the year with the dollar reaching into the low 60′s as the world loses confidence in the U.S. currency and the U.S. government’s ability to repay its debt.
7) Oil will rise from current lows and find a “fair price” somewhere in the $75 – $100 range, where it will float for much of the year. This will benefit alternative energy companies, although any gains will be muted by credit contraction and the overall market decline.
Agriculture prices will return to an uptrend as declining investment and unpredictable weather patterns lead to supply shortages amidst an ever-expanding population and increase in inflation.
9) Gold will make a new all-time (nominal) high reaching a price of $1,400 or more during 2009. A panicked flight to safety could push gold towards $2,000, although the central banks will dump gold on the market or make other attempts at suppressing the price advance.
10) All of the above will lead to increased crime and civil unrest with protests in the streets, bank runs and an increased police and military presence trying to bring stability to cities.
I wish that my predictions were a bit more uplifting, but we are truly in dire straits with conditions only continuing to worsen. The United States is essentially bankrupt and running on borrowed money and borrowed time. Many Americans will be facing severe financial hardship for the first time in their lives.
The silver lining is that these conditions are necessary to shake our apathy, demand better from our government, our community and ourselves. It is tough medicine, but is a necessary prescription that will force the change that is needed in this country and the world. We have to hit rock bottom, feel hardship, liquidate excesses and rampant corruption from the system, restructure our government, economy and entire social system. It is not going to be a pleasant undertaking but I am optimistic that we will emerge with a much better world and way of life.
In the meantime, you should be doing everything you can to stay informed, protect your assets and prepare for the transition ahead. I caution my readers not to be suckered into so called “buying opportunities” as we are nowhere near the bottom and I don’t anticipate conditions will improve for at least another 3-5 years. If you want to know the specific investments that I am making and receive my monthly newsletter, consider the premium subscription service.
Those with metaphysical inclinations may also be interested to know that the 3-5 year time horizon forecasts that we reach a bottom somewhere around the year 2012. Dec 21st of 2012 is the end of the long count of the Mayan calendar which started 5,125 years ago and coincides with the first time in approximately 26,000 years that the Sun will rise to conjunct the intersection of the Milky Way (eye, heart, center) and the ecliptic plane. According to the ancient Maya, this date will mark the end of one world as we know it and the beginning of another. No matter your beliefs, we are in for a period of significant change that will require reflection, adjustment and adaptation to a very different world that awaits.
This article was sent to me. Please tell me more about Jason Hamlin. Who is he?
Thanks!
Jason, what do your tea leaves tell you? The Mayan calendar prediction is enough for me to make drastic changes in my portfolio, but I thought that that tea leaves would really be hitting the nail on the head in terms of predicting when the economy will hit rock bottom.
Well this seems all true. But if you stand back and think for a minute…..with all our technology and computers, cell phones, etc… don’t you think this was all thought out and by computer simulation a plan has been put in place to make all this happen. Yes it is by no accident. 30 yeas ago it could be considered a mistake or a unforseen blip.. Verily-verily my friend this is all by plan, and working perfectly. Yes, starving to death is a kind way to culling the herd by economic destruction to save the Earth. Hmmmm… The Elite Group as one may say have it all under their control… You!! herd it here first….
Playin God… Pray for a different end game..
The controllers have only been in power because of the determined ignorance of the masses. Now their endgame is arriving & the sheeple are beginning to question the safety in their apathy, as the world is turned upside down. This is necessary to shake out the valuable things of the Earth, ie the people, who don’t want to be ‘unplugged’.
The controllers are confident of their success, believing that they are in control, but the future is not in their or our hands.
Check out what’s been happening in the skies around this planet, and you’ll gradually understand that these really are strange times.
Watch how you conduct yourselves in these critical times that you don’t give up on decency, and certainly don’t value posessions over humanity.
There is actually an abundance of everything except truth & love.
Obama and his string-pullers are so bat-sh*t crazy I’m starting to take the Mayan calender seriously.
I’m so sorry Pain and McCain didn’t win the election. I’m sure their combined brilliance would have pulled us out of our economic mess within months.
I’d forgotten about the Mayan calendar thing though I don’t personally put a lot of stock in such things. I am real concerned about the riot and crime aspect happening in America. We’re already seeing such things in other civilized countries and if things get as bad as you note, it could indeed happen here.
One of the things that bothers me is the Bond market and the interplay there of foreign governments.
I hope your wrong in your predictions but I mostly agree.
Wanda,
Click the About tab at the top and feel free to email me with any questions.
Jason@goldstockbull.com
I should add that California will need a bailout in Feb-March of 2009
IF YOU HAVE ANY LAND GROW CARROTS VEG THIS IS THE NEW CURRENT GO WITH THE FLOW AND LOVE YOUR NEIGHBOUR YOU MIGHT NEED THEM AND THEY WILL NEED YOU…
In response to the Mayan calendar, so called elite etc.
My own name for these elite is dark souls. Nothing can exist without light (spiritual light/love).
These dark souls will be so dark at the moment of their victory of controlling, owning the whole world or even destroying the world, that they could just fizzle out of existence.
Humanity in the meantime is waking up in droves. Mostly humanity in the priveliged countries because our standard of living is at stake. Humanity in the developing worlds already experience the cruelty of the elite even more than we do. Maybe by our awakening, we will truly understand their predicament and do something to change the system of things for all (including animals).
If gold does rise it may only be for a short while after the current financial system fails and until a new financial system is in place. Agriculture is the basis of our being and is king.
ps you sound like sold to rent1
I understand most of this looking long term but what is best for short term during deflation? What are the best,safest investments, besides shorting financials or real estate? Is that all there is to do? Any ideas for Now?
Jason,
I have been a subscriber to your newsletter
for the last year and am an astrologer-numer-
ologist as well as an avid student of stock
market analysis. I agree wholeheartedly with
your commentary and wish that we had more like
yourself with the courage to tell the truth in-
stead of selling your ideals and principles as did Mr. Greenspan (the ex student of Austrian Economic philosophy) did in order to ‘make it’
and have a ‘career’ as a central banker of the
Kenynesian ilk.
Again, congratulations and my most hearty and
enthusiastic gratitude!
Erick Tippett,Astrologer
Chicago, Illinois
Mr. Jason:
I read your articles and I know that no one knows anything. On the other hand, I have to admit that much said is true and common sense and experiences from the past combined demonstrate specific patterns. I am no expert, I am just a regular, every day mother of two (2) college students looking to learn and be on the look to make it through this economy. And my question to you is where can you suggest for me to read and learn how to buy silver and gold? At this point I don’t want to be deceive with vain promises. It is biblical that we will need to submit ourselves to the old ways (in a certain way)such as …you have the money to buy it ..buy it if you don’t you can’t buy it.. period!! This method has proved the fact to force everybody to be good steward of what they have. Subsequently, a good way to have the money hold its value is through gold and silver. (Note: The Bible states on Hague 2:8 “Mine is the silver, and mine is the gold, says the Lord of Lords”)is a safer way…it has always be the safest way may be not the most profitable but the safest way ever. Know with all this said what should you suggest I should look and research. Thank you very much and God bless! Millie
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Everything will get better soon, it is always dark before the storm but when it passes the sun shine so beautiful.
God is helping us by exposing these greedy people in government and other places such as in the banks.
Once they are gone we will be able to learn from these mistakes as well as make money off of new ideas that are coming from our temporary financial situations.
Here’s a investment tip for you, speaking of global elites depopulation and all!
tamflu- Bush is going to make out on this one too, he is partnered in the company.This is the vacination stock for the madcowpigchickenbird h1n21 or whatever gargabe they want to call this Rothschild s funded and created flu (Sorry I get frustrated that money becomes precident over humanity) It is a serious matter that will get way worse.there are 3 main stages of the virus and stage 3 is the one that will kill millions with the help of pandamonia from the news for mandatory vaccination of course. This is about as golden for them as Pfizer’s mandatory vaccinations pumping innocent children full of mercury to dumb as americans down, breaks up the neurotransmitters.
anyway I agree with the predictions, as for the mayan calendar it sounds like the bluebeam project unfold date to me!
I wonder if silver could be a better investment then gold right now, since the hospitals are starting to silver line all heating cooling ducts, sounds like a good reason to crack in the reserves and push the price way up!!
This is a wake up call, Our nations sins have piled to the heavens. We are stinky poopy people that need jesus to wash us white as snow , if your shit dont stink then your out of like he came for the sick, hes the great physician. He is rich in mercy and grace(unearned goodness)we are saved by grace alone, not the pope not church buildings but by abc
Admitting to God that we have sinned and accepting him and his spirit to come into our lives
Believing he died for you and all your sins past present future, his will is none shall perish
Confessing him as Lord and savior
He then promises you eternal life, trials and tribulations, whats new we got them now!
streets of gold , kryptonite resistant superman body, eternal bliss
but you got freewill
we can keep following satan the God of this world and curse God as most of us do now, and i as i did as a formally atheist and yes I know that means I was agnostic , but atheist is a word for people who are angry at God 90% of time.
prophecy is almost done fulfilling The Rockefeller’s goal is quote “to put a rfid chip (verichip)
in the hand a every person on the entire planet” Why if you dont do what your told to do you are turned off, cant buy sell or trade without the mark and if you take it you still might be turned off but even worse The bible tells that those who take it will be thrown into the lake of fire.
Jesus Loves you all very much! The bible says to put on Christ.
Imagine me and you jumping out of a plane which is the case.
i got the parachute.
you might say or been drinking Oprah Winfrey’s Koolaid, I believe that as long as you are a good person it dont matter what or who you believe Buddha islam self wicca.That is as dumb as standing in the road and a bing truck is coming saying, I dont believe in trucks. You must be born again, there is none good except God, that is why he sent a savior to pay sins debt a amount you cant pay with your own good deeds and merit. He took the sins of the whole world.
Call on him.
Anyway I wasnt trying to preach but I would not dare seeing and hearing the troubled hearts of his people not tell about the loving savior!
I cant do God any justice advocating for him so this is a link , hear the Spirit and heart of God
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7phiWTPtLpA&feature=related
you may be right but it doesnt seems to me that it will go up to 1100$maximum for this year and before that it can even come to 840$
Well gold currently stands at $951 an oz, so it seems to be getting there.
i surprised to read these comments.It may be true that gold will reach $ 1400.
well gold is flying but he was dead wrong about the dow i see 11000 by xmas. i see gold going to 1400.
British clairvoyant Simon Alexander said gold would be under $1000 at the end of the year. It’s edging down again now, but how far?
I believe $1,000 is highly unlikely. Technicals suggest bottom will be around $1,050-$1,080 range, but then again, I’m not clairvoyant.