Gold Stock Bull

This opinion piece in Bloomberg is worth repeating in its entirety. Kudos to Jonathan Weil for calling a spade a spade. The bailout is hyper-inflationary ‘my friends.’ Out of dollars and into gold. I am buying CEF, SKF, SRS and EEV. I don’t think enough people understand the relevance and magnitude of what is going on. Alarmist? Nah, we are basically screwed.

“Maybe Congress isn’t so dumb after all.

The fatal flaw in Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s $700 billion bailout plan was that it wouldn’t fix the problem: Too many important financial institutions don’t have enough capital.

If the government wants to save dying banks before they take others down with them, it should choose the clean and direct path: Inject capital into them. Take ownership stakes in return. And, where that’s not feasible, seize them and sell their assets in an orderly way, just as the Resolution Trust Corp. did after the 1980s savings-and-loan crisis.

Only after a company’s shareholders and debt holders have been flattened should taxpayers take a hit. And for a $700 billion investment, U.S. taxpayers should get a lot more in return than a gargantuan pile of toxic waste.

For that much money, at yesterday’s prices, the government could buy 23 of the 24 banks in the KBW Bank Index, including Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. And it still would have money left to buy a stake in JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest company in the index.

Infusing capital directly, though, was too simple for Paulson. It lacked subterfuge. He decided the way to save the financial system from the evils of structured finance was through more structured finance.

Instead of asking Congress to let Treasury recapitalize needy banks, he proposed buying some of their troubled assets at above-market prices. This would have let other banks create phony capital by writing up the values of similar assets on their own balance sheets, using Treasury’s prices as their guide.

Small Wonder

In short, Paulson’s plan was one part robbery (with the banks doing the robbing) and one part accounting sleight of hand. No wonder House members rejected it.

If Paulson or congressional leaders devise a Plan B, they should look to the example of Fortis, Belgium’s biggest financial-services company. This week, the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg invested 11.2 billion euros ($16.3 billion) in Fortis. In exchange, they got ownership of almost half its banking business.

That’s how a government intervention is supposed to work. The company gets fresh capital, which has the added benefit of not being fake. The buyers get equity. Legacy shareholders get slammed with dilution. And if the company recovers, the government can sell shares to the public later, maybe even at a profit.

Such simplicity might feel unnatural to someone like Paulson, who used to run Goldman Sachs Group Inc., or a congressman such as Barney Frank who depends on campaign checks from bankers like an infant needs mother’s milk. And lots of taxpayers might object anyway, because it still would involve sending big checks to banks.

Gaining Understanding

At least voters could understand a plan in the European mold, which might lead them to be more forgiving about any unpleasant details. That’s better than trying to scare the public into supporting a bailout that doesn’t make sense.

As for the illiquid assets still on banks’ balance sheets, the best way to find out what they’re worth is to start disclosing every conceivable piece of data about them, right down to the daily cash flows they produce. A big reason subprime mortgage-related securities aren’t selling is that outsiders can’t see what’s underlying them on a timely basis.

Remove the kimonos, and capitalism will take its course. At some price, buyers will emerge, once they can see what they’re buying. Banks could clear their books. The companies that are able to attract fresh capital would survive. And the ones that couldn’t would die, as they should.

What Congress must remember is that Americans don’t exist at the pleasure of the country’s banks. It’s supposed to be the other way around. There’s still time for the politicians to come up with a rescue plan that will work. The important part is making sure you and I get something of value in return for our money.”

Click here for original article in Bloomberg

And for some true bipartisanship… both Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich say the bailout plan is bullshit.

Contact your representative right now and tell them not to pass the bailout in its current form. Or sit there and get robbed while handing massive debt to your children, debasing your currency and delaying and exasperating the inevitable.

(Reuters) NEW YORK - The U.S Mint said Thursday it was temporarily suspending sales of American Buffalo 24-karat gold one-ounce bullion coins because strong demand depleted its inventory.

“Demand has exceeded supply for American Buffalo 24-karat gold one-ounce bullion coins, and our inventories have been depleted. We are, therefore, temporarily suspending sales of these coins,” the Mint said in a memorandum to authorized American Buffalo dealers.

The Mint also told dealers that it would work to build up its inventory to resume sales shortly.

In mid-August, a shortage of American Eagle one-ounce gold coins due to “unprecedented” demand had also forced the U.S. Mint to temporarily suspend sales of the popular coins.

The Mint said Thursday it would continue to supply the American Eagle 22-karat gold one-ounce and American Eagle silver bullion coins on an allocation basis to coin dealers.

In addition, the half-ounce, quarter-ounce, and 1-10th ounce American Eagle gold coins and American Eagle platinum were also available, the Mint said.

Coin dealers from the United States to Canada have recently reported a surge in buying of bullion coins and other gold products as troubles in the financial markets prompted people to seek a safe haven in precious metals.

Got gold?

Gold made a huge run from $650 to $850 during the back half of 2007. After this run, gold corrected and consolidated around the $800 level and support at $790 proved to be a very solid floor from which the second run was launched that took gold from $800 to over $1,000. Fast forward to 2008 and gold’s most recent correction has seen the price fall back to this very important floor once again. On three separate occasions during the past month, gold has tested this support level and has bounced off with vigor. We also see in the chart below that gold’s stochastics have bottomed and are turning up. From a technical point of view, it looks very much like gold has found its floor.

Fundamentals are also pointing toward higher prices, as we head into the Indian wedding season. The latest statistics are showing extremely robust gold sales, with imports up 45% during August. But it is not only India that is showing signs of surging demand for the precious metal, Abu Dhabi reported gold sales were up 300% during August. We also have news of significantly lower supply coming out of the world’s largest gold producers. Rising demand and declining supply always equals higher prices.

With inflation out of control and the dollar extremely overbought, I anticipate a rally in precious metals and energy over the next several weeks. With the economy coming out of a consolidation phase and looking ready to continue downward, we should a powerful spike at funds rush back into commodities and out of financials, housing and blue chips.

I admit to being caught off guard in terms of the severity of the recent correction. It seems likely that the government and banks are colluding and using paper contracts to massively short precious metals and drive the price down. They don’t want to see an alternative currency gaining popularity and a rising gold price confirms fears that inflation is much more severe than their statistics suggest. Ted Butler’s “Smoking Gun” article is recommended for more on this topic, as is Jason Hommel’s “Tribute to 7th Grade Math.”

I believe the gig is up and that market forces will pull precious metal prices back to levels dictated by true supply and demand. Shorts will need to be covered and huge sums of money will be looking for a “safe haven” as more banks fails and the U.S. economic decline gets worse. Now it the time to buy both gold and silver and realize significant profits as the prices bounce back just as forcefully as they declined.

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